Brace for a Busy 2020 Hurricane Season

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The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons begin on June 1 and May 15, respectively, lasting both through November 30. Peak activity generally occurs from August through October, but tropical systems form throughout the season and sometimes even outside of official start and end dates. 

Current predictions indicate a more active than normal season for the Atlantic basin and an average or perhaps slightly below average season for the Eastern Pacific. However, even slower seasons can see major storms make landfall, and weaker storms can also pose severe dangers in terms of storm surge along the coast and flooding in low-lying areas inland, particularly when such systems stall. Therefore, hurricane readiness is encouraged every year regardless of seasonal predictions.

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Source: National Meteorological Service of Belize
 

ATLANTIC BASIN FORECAST

Most predictions have so far called for higher levels of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin based on warmer than average surface sea temperatures (SSTs) and the possibility of a La Nina weather pattern developing in the Pacificlater in the year; La Nina leads to weakened vertical wind shear in the Atlantic and overall more favorable conditions for tropical development. El Nino conditions, which can boost Pacific activity and depress Atlantic activity, are currently deemed unlikely to form.

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Source: Climate Central

Forecasts indicate an average of 17 named storms total, eight of which will become hurricanes; of these hurricanes, an average of four are expected to become major systems (Category 3 or higher). By contrast, an average Atlantic season has 12 named storms. Storms can affect a wide geographic area in the Atlantic basin, ranging from the US New England States and Canadian Maritime provinces in the north down through Central America and, more rarely, even parts of the northern coast of South America. However, countries located either in part or wholly in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Sargasso Sea subregions of the Atlantic are most at risk.

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Source: NOAA
 

EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST 

Because most storm systems that form in the Eastern Pacific generally track well away from land and eventually dissipate, there is often less of a focus on predicting how the region’s hurricane season will play out. However, there is a growing consensus that somewhat cooler than average SSTs and the potential development of La Nina will work to inhibit tropical activity such that the season overall is average or perhaps slightly less active than average. A typical season will see around 15 named storms, of which eight are hurricanes and four of those are major hurricanes. While there is less risk of landfall in the Eastern Pacific, the Mexican Pacific coast as well as the US state of Hawaii do lie within storm paths; indeed, some landfalls along the Mexican Pacific coast have been devastating, with flooding even tracking into the western and southwestern US depending on the particular system’s cohesiveness and longevity.

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Source: Climate Central
 

OUTLOOK

The higher-than-average activity predicted for the Atlantic is disconcerting due to both the vast number of countries that find themselves in the paths of such storms and also the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Indeed, a “hurricane during a pandemic” scenario was tested last month in the South Pacific when the island nation of Vanuatu was ravaged by Cyclone Harold – a Category 5 storm – amidst a national state of emergency for COVID-19. While social distancing measures and certain other virus prevention guidelines were temporarily suspended, the country has continued to struggle with aid relief efforts in light of its closed borders and cargo quarantines – another aspect of its COVID-19 policy.

Public health experts have now begun to contemplate worst case scenarios in which locales with active outbreaks suffer potential strikes by tropical systems. There will have to be a carefully calibrated balance between pandemic prevention efforts and storm rescue and recovery efforts, as the two are likely to be in conflict with each other in the aftermath of storm’s landfall.

More generally, there is also concern that the 2020 Atlantic season could resemble active seasons such as that of 2017, when a number of major hurricanes hit the US and various island nations in the Caribbean, ultimately provoking some USD370 billion in damages. Indeed, the passage of Hurricane Maria across the archipelago of Puerto Rico provoked the longest blackout in US history, with some residents in more remote areas losing power for nearly a year. The 2017 season left open the question of whether island governments as well as relevant distant “parent” governments (i.e. the US, UK, France and the Netherlands) are truly able to mount an effective response to multiple major storms within the same season – indeed, in the cases of Hurricanes Irma and Maria within mere weeks of each other in the same region.

The situation in the Eastern Pacific, though less worrying in terms of predicted activity, is not without some concern given that tropical activity has already begun in that region. There have been multiple direct landfalls on Mexico’s Pacific coast from major hurricanes in years past. Mexico’s burgeoning COVID-19 outbreak and its haphazard efforts at controlling it complicate the unique yet annual scenario the country faces as it enters hurricane season.
 

RECOMMENDATIONS

As travel may peak again later in the year, when stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions are lifted, those traveling to/from or through any locales that could be affected by tropical systems should carefully monitor forecasts. Those living in such locales should also monitor forecasts and keep evacuation protocols and survival kits up to date. Such kits should include:  

  • Batteries and/or power banks

  • Torches

  • Maps of surrounding areas

  • A radio

  • An emergency whistle

  • A basic toolkit

Sufficient supplies of non-perishable food items and drinking water should also be procured prior to the arrival of any storm system, as should sufficient gasoline for vehicles and any electric generators. Properties should be inspected for any tree limbs or other items which could smash windows, which should themselves be boarded up or otherwise shielded where possible.

Those in the paths of storms should heed any and all government directives and should acquaint themselves with the nearest storm shelter as well as how to avail themselves of relief efforts after the storm passes. Finally, those in coastal areas and/or low-lying areas inland should pay particular attention to building elevation and the potential for flooding, as storm surge and flooding events are frequently the deadliest aspects of tropical systems.

 
Posted: 8/7/2020 9:00:00 AM